India increased crude oil purchases from Russia and maintained near-record imports from the UAE in June as refiners moved to secure supplies while waiting for a full recovery in Gulf exports following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, PTI reported citing data from maritime and commodity intelligence firm Kpler.India imported an average 2.66 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia in June through June 19, up from 1.91 million bpd in May, cementing Moscow’s position as the country’s largest oil supplier.Imports from the UAE stood at 636,000 bpd during the period, marginally below the record 644,000 bpd imported in May. Venezuela emerged as India’s fourth-largest crude supplier with shipments of 209,000 bpd, behind Saudi Arabia’s 384,000 bpd.Imports from the United States fell sharply to 91,000 bpd from 252,000 bpd in May, according to Kpler data.The purchases underscore India’s diversification strategy, with discounted Russian barrels continuing to attract refiners while UAE supplies helped offset uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recovery underway, but risks remain
India, the world’s third-largest energy importer, depends heavily on the Gulf region for crude oil, LNG and LPG supplies.The disruption began after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli attacks, choking a strategic route that carries about 20% of global oil consumption and serves as the principal export channel for producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar.Oil shipments through the Strait started recovering late last week after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. However, Iranian authorities have accused Israel of violating the agreement, raising questions over the durability of the reopening.According to Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager-Modelling at Kpler, the reopening is expected to bring relief to India’s energy imports, although the pace of recovery will vary across fuels.“A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) would represent a major milestone for global energy markets, but the impact on India is likely to vary significantly across commodities,” he said.“While India remains one of the largest importers of Middle Eastern hydrocarbons (crude, LPG, and LNG), crude and LNG imports have proven relatively resilient throughout the disruption, unlike LPG, which has been the most severely affected.”
LPG likely to recover first
Ritolia said LPG supplies are likely to normalise faster than crude oil and LNG imports because India has already adapted to months of disruption through alternative sourcing and supply routes.“As a result, the recovery is likely to be sequential, with LPG flows normalising first, followed by LNG and crude. Under our base case of a gradual reopening from early July, the initial focus will be on clearing trapped cargoes and restoring shipping flows before Gulf exporters can materially increase exports,” he said.India imports about 88% of its crude oil needs, nearly half of its natural gas requirement and around 65% of its LPG consumption. Before the conflict, the Gulf region supplied roughly half of the country’s crude imports, two-thirds of LNG requirements and nearly 90% of LPG imports.Recent signs of normalisation have already emerged. Three Indian-flagged oil tankers carrying more than 860,000 tonnes of crude and an Indian LNG carrier have resumed transit through the strategic waterway following the US-Iran agreement.
Russian crude remains central to strategy
Ritolia said Russian crude continues to anchor India’s oil import strategy, with June imports expected to exceed 2.35 million bpd and potentially set a record, supported by competitive discounts and steady refinery demand.He expects Russian supplies to remain a cornerstone of India’s import basket even after Hormuz normalises because of favourable economics and supply security considerations.Indian refiners have also increased purchases from Venezuela and the Atlantic Basin since March to offset tighter Gulf supplies. Venezuelan imports are estimated at 300,000-400,000 bpd in June, offering refiners processing heavier grades an additional diversification option despite sanctions-related risks.According to Ritolia, Gulf suppliers are likely to gradually regain market share as Hormuz normalises, although India’s sourcing mix is expected to remain broader than before the crisis.He added that the reopening of Hormuz should help ease freight costs, reduce supply risks and moderate energy prices globally, though a full return to pre-crisis trade patterns could take weeks or months as shipping companies, insurers and traders rebuild confidence in the route.
